Real Estate’s Comeback May Belong to Demographics, Not Offices

Nuveen argues the next phase of commercial real estate recovery is increasingly centered around demographic-driven sectors like senior housing and medical outpatient facilities. 

• Global private real estate returns have now been positive for seven consecutive quarters after two years of declines.
• Demand for medical outpatient space continues to outpace supply, supported by the long-term shift from inpatient to outpatient care.
• Americans aged 75+ are projected to grow 68% between 2024 and 2040, dramatically increasing healthcare and senior housing demand.
• Senior housing construction pipelines remain at decade lows while rents continue rising above 4% annually.

The office boom defined the last real estate cycle. The next one may increasingly be shaped by aging populations rather than downtown commuters.