Central Banks Freeze as the Energy Shock Clouds the Outlook

Amundi argues global central banks are entering a phase of “disciplined optionality,” pausing policy moves while assessing whether the Middle East energy shock evolves into a broader stagflation regime. 

• The Fed, ECB and BoE all held rates steady, with policymakers increasingly focused on inflation persistence rather than immediate growth support.
• Amundi expects the Fed’s next move to be a cut in early 2027, while the ECB and BoE are also likely to remain on hold this year.
• Oil briefly hit its highest level in almost four years, pushing bond yields higher and tightening Eurozone credit conditions.
• China’s manufacturing PMI held above expectations, supported by resilient exports despite the prolonged conflict.

Central banks are no longer reacting to growth alone. The real uncertainty is whether this becomes a temporary shock—or a new inflation regime.