Belgium’s Inflation Looks Calm—But the Real Shock May Still Be Ahead

ING’s Philippe Ledent argues that Belgium’s modest March inflation print masks a much sharper inflation impulse that is likely to emerge in the coming months. 

• Headline inflation rose only from 1.4% to 1.6% in March, but ING says this largely reflects timing and index methodology, not genuine insulation from higher energy costs.
• Belgium remains unusually exposed to energy swings, with energy accounting for roughly 10% of CPI and retail pricing structures amplifying future pass-through.
• ING estimates that if current energy pricing holds, inflation could move close to 3% in April and toward 4% in the months ahead, with wage indexation adding further pressure.

If March was merely the calm before the pass-through, Belgium’s inflation story may be less benign than the headline suggests.