AI Is Not the Main Driver of the Global Hiring Slowdown

Schroders examines whether artificial intelligence is already suppressing employment growth, concluding that the data do not yet support the widely cited narrative. 

• Global labor market momentum has softened since late 2022, but productivity gains outside the U.S. remain too weak to indicate widespread AI-driven automation.

• AI-related layoffs represent only a small portion of job losses and are concentrated primarily within the technology sector.

• Broader hiring weakness appears tied instead to factors such as trade uncertainty, tighter immigration policy in the U.S., and structural competitive pressures.

If AI is not yet reshaping employment, the risk may lie in policymakers responding prematurely to an economic shift that has not fully materialized.