IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, But Trade Frictions Persist

The featured report assesses the Supreme Court’s 6–3 ruling invalidating tariffs imposed under IEEPA, with implications for trade policy and Treasury supply 

• The decision nullifies prior emergency-based duties, with potential refunds estimated near $150bn, effectively a one-off fiscal stimulus if ordered.

• The administration is moving to reinstate tariffs under alternative statutes, limiting medium-term relief for importers.

• Treasury yields could rise if large-scale refunds increase issuance needs, even as near-term volatility benefits select sectors and emerging markets.

Does legal clarity reduce uncertainty—or simply shift the mechanism of trade policy? The full brief outlines the market calculus.