AI as a General-Purpose Technology: Macro Effects Delayed, Not Diminished

The featured report assess whether AI qualifies as a true general-purpose technology—and what that implies for growth, inflation and policy.

• AI capex likely adds ~0.5pp to near-term GDP, but productivity gains may follow a historical “J-curve,” with bottlenecks and overinvestment risks tempering early returns.

• Aggregate disinflation is uncertain: sector-level price effects may diverge, while wage dispersion could widen as AI complements some roles and displaces others.

• The Fed may retain a cautious easing bias amid anemic hiring, yet long-run impacts on NAIRU, fiscal balances and neutral rates remain ambiguous.

Is AI a cyclical boost—or a structural reset? The full report weighs the macro variables.