Macro Resilience Persists as Policy Paths Narrow

Prepared by ING’s global economics team, this February update assesses how growth, inflation, and policy expectations are evolving across major economies amid heightened geopolitical noise.

• Global growth remains resilient but uneven: the US outperforms on tech and high-income consumption, while Europe enters a modest cyclical upswing without resolving structural constraints.

• Disinflation allows selective easing: the Fed is likely to delay initial cuts, the ECB remains on hold, while the BoE appears closer to earlier rate reductions than markets price.

• Commodities and geopolitics add volatility, yet ING expects oil and gas prices to ease over 2026 as supply dynamics reassert themselves.

Where do these cross-currents leave portfolios as policy optionality narrows? The full update provides granular forecasts and regional insights.