US Consumer Buffer Thins as Global Rate Paths Diverge

State Street Investment Management’s Weekly Economic Perspectives (Simona Mocuta, Amy Le and Krishna Bhimavarapu) highlights where macro risks are shifting as 2026 begins.

• The US personal saving rate fell to 3.5% (three-year low), signalling reduced resilience for lower-income consumers as job growth slows.

• UK inflation rose to 3.4% y/y, but remains below Bank of England expectations, keeping March and June rate cuts in play.

• Japan’s data improved (manufacturing PMI 51.5), yet inflation eased to 2.1%, supporting a “one hike in 2026” base case.

Explore the full commentary for the cross-country dashboard and next-week catalysts shaping rates and risk assets.