Consider This: Greenland scenario analysis—transatlantic trade and defense implications

This Franklin Templeton Institute “Consider This” note by Kim Catechis outlines a Greenland escalation scenario and its potential spillovers across transatlantic trade, security and markets.

• Trump threatens 10% tariffs, rising to 25% in June, on countries opposing US efforts to acquire Greenland; EU allies have deployed troops symbolically in support of Denmark.

• A forced takeover could trigger EU sanctions, digital taxes and use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, undermining any US–EU trade deal progress.

• Trade exposure is uneven: UK (16.9%) and Germany (10%) lead EU goods-export reliance on the US; defense chains are tight (18% of the F-35 is European-made).

How should portfolios price geopolitical brinkmanship when trade tools and defense commitments collide?