Managed Transition, Limited Oil Shock: Markets Reprice Venezuela Risk

This report, authored by senior geopolitical and macro strategists at Amundi Investment Institute, assesses the market and geopolitical implications of the US intervention in Venezuela. 

• Maduro’s removal points to a managed political transition, reducing immediate domestic disruption but leaving material medium-term governance risks.

• Near-term oil market effects are modest; production constraints limit upside, while longer-term supply recovery could weigh on prices.

• Venezuelan sovereign debt may see selective upside, contingent on sustained investment, legal clarity, and oil cash-flow restoration.

The full report explores how these dynamics may reshape geopolitics, oil markets, and portfolio allocation decisions in greater depth.