Tariffs, Technology, and Transition: Navigating a Shifting Global Cycle

PIMCO economists Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls examine how rising trade frictions, an AI-driven investment surge, and institutional shifts are reshaping global markets and policy responses.

• Economic forces: Tariffs, now averaging 11%, are beginning to weigh on trade and growth, while resilient AI investment continues to drive productivity and market resilience.

• Monetary landscape: Global rate cuts are set to continue as inflation cools and fiscal support wanes, with bond yields offering attractive entry points.

• Investment stance: PIMCO favors short-to-intermediate duration bonds, global diversification, and high-quality asset-backed finance for balanced opportunity and resilience.

How should investors position amid this clash of tariffs, technology, and transition?