Dog Days Ahead: Resilience Meets Risk in the U.S. Summer Outlook

In this June 2025 economic outlook, Northern Trust’s Global Economic Research team assesses U.S. growth prospects, inflation pressures, and policy uncertainty heading into the summer.

• Policy risk remains elevated, with trade tensions, fiscal uncertainty, and potential debt ceiling issues weighing on sentiment.

• Inflation is moderating—CPI at 2.4%—but tariffs may introduce renewed pressures, even as Fed officials see these as temporary.

• Labor market shows signs of cooling, and while GDP contracted in Q1 due to trade imbalances, consumer and business spending remains supportive.

Read the full report for deeper insights into policy expectations, interest rate forecasts, and portfolio implications through 2025.