Aluminium Deficit Persists Despite Easing Middle East Tensions

ING argues that the recent US-Iran ceasefire and preliminary agreement have reduced geopolitical risks, but have not changed the underlying reality of a structurally tight aluminium market facing significant supply shortages.

• ING estimates that conflict-related disruptions have already removed roughly 3 million tonnes of aluminium production from the market, leaving a projected global deficit of 1.8 million tonnes in 2026.
• Chinese exports have risen sharply and output has reached record levels, but production is already above Beijing’s official capacity cap, limiting China's ability to fully offset lost global supply.
• Physical market conditions remain tight, with LME aluminium inventories down nearly 40% since the start of the year. ING therefore maintains its aluminium price forecasts of $3,500/t for Q3 and $3,400/t for Q4 despite easing geopolitical tensions.

Read the full report for a detailed analysis of aluminium supply disruptions, Chinese export dynamics and the outlook for global metal markets.