Energy Shock Arithmetic: OPEC Fractures and India Feels the Strain

Northern Trust highlights how the UAE’s exit from OPEC and rising energy stress are exposing structural vulnerabilities across both producers and import-dependent economies. 

• The UAE’s departure weakens cartel discipline, raising the risk of production competition or price wars within OPEC.
• Global stagflation risks are rising, though structural conditions differ from the 1970s, limiting a full repeat scenario.
• India faces acute exposure, importing ~90% of oil and ~85% of fertilisers, with energy shocks feeding directly into inflation and growth constraints.

Energy shocks rarely stay contained. What begins in oil markets tends to surface everywhere else with a delay.