China’s Growth Engine Still Runs on Exports and Investment

AllianzGI argues China’s 2026 outlook remains resilient, but growth is still powered by manufacturing, exports and state-backed investment rather than household consumption. 

• AllianzGI expects 4.8% GDP growth in 2026, versus an official target range of 4.5–5.0%.
• Inflation is forecast at just 0.8%, well below the government’s 2% target.
• Current account surplus could exceed 4% of GDP, supported by strong exports and weak imports.
• Beijing is expected to ease only gradually, with limited urgency for large-scale stimulus.

China looks stable on the surface. Yet beneath that stability sits an old imbalance: factories still carry more of the economy than households do.