Inflation Is the Real U.S. War Risk

Northern Trust’s April outlook says the main economic threat from the Iran conflict is not recession, but a renewed inflation pulse through energy and disrupted supply chains. 

• Oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, plastics, and aluminum disruptions may take months to normalize, even under a ceasefire.
• U.S. CPI rose to a two-year high of 3.3%, led by gasoline and fuel oil.
• Northern Trust still expects 2.2% U.S. GDP growth in 2026, showing confidence in economic resilience.
• The Fed may deliver one late-year cut, but only if inflation spillovers remain contained.

The implication is subtle but important: growth can survive the shock, but inflation may prove far harder to contain.