Central Banks Face a Crude Disruption

Robeco’s April Central Bank Watcher argues the Iran war has become a global monetary policy shock, forcing central banks to delay easing plans and reconsider inflation risks through the energy channel. 

• Robeco sees the Fed still cutting twice later this year, but only if oil pressures fade and labor markets soften.
• The ECB may stay on hold in April, with 25 bps hikes in June and September if Brent remains near current levels.
• The PBoC remains cautious, preferring targeted support while resisting aggressive broad easing.
• The BoJ is the outlier, with policy rates expected to keep rising as inflation and wage momentum strengthen.

The broader takeaway: one geopolitical shock has split the global rate cycle into four very different paths.