Confidence Is Becoming the Real Casualty of the Energy Shock

NatWest’s latest UK macro note argues that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is no longer just an oil story—it is rapidly becoming a broader confidence shock hitting households, businesses, and policymakers. 

• Oil moved back above $100, while UK CFO confidence fell to its lowest level since the pandemic amid geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs.
• UK housing indicators weakened sharply, with buyer enquiries, agreed sales, and price expectations all deteriorating as mortgage sentiment softened.
• In the U.S., headline CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3%, driven largely by gasoline, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path.

If confidence continues to weaken before labour markets break, the macro damage may outlast the energy spike itself.