Markets Rally on Ceasefire Relief—But the Supply Shock Still Lingers

Edmond de Rothschild’s latest Market Flash argues that while the Iran ceasefire sparked a rebound in risk assets, the underlying energy and growth risks remain unresolved. 

• Government bond yields fell and equities rallied after de-escalation, but the firm notes the truce remains fragile and key issues around Hormuz remain unsettled.
• The IEA warned that 12 million barrels per day could still be disrupted once tankers already at sea complete deliveries.
• March surveys suggest the eurozone was hit harder than the U.S., with export-sensitive economies such as Italy slipping into contraction territory.

If markets are pricing peace faster than supply chains can normalize, volatility may not be finished.