Central Banks Pause, But Markets Are Already Repricing the Next Move

Amundi’s weekly market note argues that policymakers are not easing into calm, but pausing into uncertainty.

• The Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ all held rates steady, but rising bond yields suggest markets are increasingly pricing a longer period of policy restraint.
• Energy-driven inflation risks—especially in Europe—are complicating the outlook, pushing central banks toward a “wait-and-see” stance rather than a clear pivot.
• Equity and bond markets both weakened as investors reassessed the balance between slowing growth and renewed inflation pressure.

If oil remains elevated, central banks may not need to hike to tighten conditions—markets may do it for them.