The Dollar’s Comeback: A Potential Threat to the Global Rally

Robeco’s multi-asset outlook argues that the biggest risk to the current “everything rally” may be a countertrend rebound in the U.S. dollar.

• Markets have rotated away from mega-cap technology toward cyclicals, commodities, and value sectors as investors question returns on AI capital spending.

• Rising geopolitical tensions and positioning imbalances could trigger a temporary dollar rally, which historically tends to occur during periods of global stress.

• A stronger dollar would pressure emerging markets and risk assets, potentially interrupting the current synchronized global growth narrative.

Whether the dollar’s rebound proves temporary or structural could determine the durability of the current market rotation.