Hormuz at Risk: Energy Markets Confront a High-Impact Supply Shock

ING assesses that escalating U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran materially raise the probability of sustained oil and LNG disruption, with asymmetric upside risks to prices 

• Brent could immediately move toward $80–90/bbl, with upside to $100 and, in a worst case involving prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption (20m b/d oil; ~20% of global LNG trade), as high as $140.

• European TTF gas could spike to €80–100/MWh if Qatari LNG flows are curtailed; Israel has already halted key gas fields.

• SPR releases and incremental OPEC+ supply offer only temporary relief; U.S. shale response would lag 6–12 months.

Is this a transient risk premium—or the start of a structurally tighter energy regime? The full note examines scenarios.