Rethinking Commodities: From Futures to Full Value Chains

Janus Henderson’s Rob Shimell, Dan Sullivan and Mark Richardson argue that structural forces are reviving commodities—but traditional futures exposure is ill-suited to capture the opportunity 

• Deglobalisation, decarbonisation, AI-driven demand and chronic underinvestment point to a sustained, demand-led commodities supercycle, with valuations historically cheap versus equities.

• Long-only futures strategies face persistent headwinds: negative carry, episodic drawdowns, narrow index breadth and rising equity correlations in stress periods.

• A hybrid long/short approach across the full value chain—producers, enablers, logistics and downstream beneficiaries—aims to enhance diversification, inflation resilience and event-risk protection.

Is the next commodities cycle about price beta—or structural positioning? The full article outlines a modern allocation framework.