Geopolitics Tested, Earnings Held

Van Lanschot Kempen’s February Asset Allocation Outlook argues that early-2026 geopolitical shocks have not altered the underlying macro or market regime 

• Despite Venezuela tensions, Iran risks and gold volatility, equity markets remain resilient; US earnings growth exceeds 15%, supporting an overweight to US equities, particularly IT and financials.

• Growth is holding up across the US and Eurozone, while Warsh’s Fed nomination tempers fears of policy excess and reduces tail risks around inflation.

• Bonds remain neutral amid rising term premia; credits are selective, with underweight US investment grade and neutral high yield and EM debt.

Is market indifference to geopolitics justified—or a sign of complacency? The full outlook details cross-asset positioning and sector strategy.