Global Economic Outlook

This report from Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D., and the Templeton Global Macro team assesses the global economic outlook for Q1 2026 amid heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Global growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026, with emerging markets—particularly Asia and India—continuing to outpace developed economies.

• Trade fragmentation, tariff shifts, and geopolitical tensions are accelerating “global rewiring,” reshaping supply chains and capital flows.

• Divergent inflation and monetary paths point to selective, country-level opportunities, alongside a structurally weaker U.S. dollar.

How can investors position portfolios to capture value as global growth, policy, and currencies increasingly diverge?