Commodities: A strategic shield against new-regime risks

This report by Tiffany Wilding of PIMCO assesses the Federal Reserve’s January policy decision and its implications for the U.S. macro outlook

• The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% after 75 bps of prior cuts, signaling openness to further easing later in 2026 without urgency.

• Improving inflation dynamics, productivity gains from AI, and easing housing costs support a disinflationary trend despite firm growth.

• Policy is viewed as sufficiently restrictive yet flexible, pointing to a gradual, data-dependent easing path.

What signals should investors watch as the Fed navigates the next phase of monetary normalization?