Venezuela: Assessing implications for oil markets and Latin America

A Columbia Threadneedle Investments analysis by Kate Moreton, Meg O’Connor and Sarah Glendon assesses how recent US military action in Venezuela could reshape oil markets, migration trends and Latin American geopolitics.

• Venezuelan crude output is <1m bpd vs a 3.5m bpd 1973 peak; even with full sanctions relief, incremental supply is estimated at ~500k bpd over 2–3 years.

• Venezuela represents ~6% of global heavy crude supply, implying potential pressure on heavy-sour differentials if exports rise under US oversight.

• Nearly 8m Venezuelans (~23% of the population) have emigrated since 2014, with normalization potentially supporting gradual remigration and regional trade recovery.

Explore the full report for scenario analysis, timelines and key market transmission channels.