Dividend Growth Offers Ballast as the Cycle Softens

Nuveen’s CIO Weekly Commentary, authored by Saira Malik on behalf of the Global Investment Committee, assesses late-cycle signals and portfolio resilience as markets head into 2026. 

• U.S. labor data point to cooling momentum, with rising unemployment complicating the path for rate cuts despite easing inflation prints.

• Equity valuations remain elevated, supported by strong earnings expectations, but narrow leadership and AI sensitivity raise volatility risks.

• Dividend-growth equities stand out historically for delivering higher risk-adjusted returns and steadier performance during choppier markets.

For investors weighing how to stay invested while managing drawdowns, the full commentary expands on why income discipline may matter more in the year ahead.