UK Defies Pre-Budget Gloom as Lending and Housing Show Resilience

NatWest’s Chief Economist team outlines a picture of underlying strength in the UK and global economies heading into year-end.

• Domestic momentum: UK household deposits rose £6 billion in September, while consumer credit and mortgage approvals surged—signaling confidence despite fiscal uncertainty.

• Housing stability: Nationwide recorded its third price increase in four months, suggesting resilience amid high rates and tax concerns.

• Global backdrop: The Fed trimmed rates to 3.75%–4.00% and ended balance-sheet runoff, while the ECB held steady as eurozone growth (0.2% q/q) and inflation (2.1%) stayed balanced.

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