Dual Rally Signals a Market Balancing Between Optimism and Caution

This report, prepared by Vanguard’s Global Economics and Markets Team, offers a comprehensive outlook on financial markets as of October 2025, combining macroeconomic insights with long-term return projections.

• Rare dual rally: Gold (+60%) and U.S. equities (+13%) are rising together—an unusual alignment reflecting both investor optimism (AI-driven growth) and lingering macro uncertainty.

• AI investment surge: Corporate capital expenditure in AI has become a key GDP stabilizer, offsetting weaker job growth and moderating downside risks.

• Balanced growth outlook: Vanguard forecasts modest U.S. growth (≈1.5%) with inflation around 3% and unemployment near 4.7%.

Explore the full report for detailed asset-class projections and scenario analyses across global markets.