UK Growth Holds Steady as Global Outlook Remains Fragile

NatWest’s Steady but Unspectacular (20 Oct 2025) highlights a UK economy maintaining modest growth amid easing rate pressures and stabilising labour conditions.

• UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, with manufacturing up 0.7% and three-month growth at 0.3%. The labour market is loosening gradually, as unemployment edges to 4.8% and wage growth cools to 4.4%, easing inflation risk.

• Retail sales remain resilient, up 2.3% year-on-year, despite poor weather and strikes; lenders report rising credit supply and demand as mortgage rates fall.

• Globally, the IMF revised 2025 growth up to 3.2%, though protectionism, fiscal expansion, and policy uncertainty persist—leaving advanced economies navigating slower but stable trajectories.

Can the UK sustain its steady pace while global headwinds intensify? Read the full report for NatWest’s detailed macro view