U.S. “High-Pressure Economy” Drives Market Momentum but Raises Late-Cycle Risks

Robeco’s Monthly Market Monitor (Oct 2025) analyzes how strong U.S. growth, sticky inflation, and policy stimulus are reshaping multi-asset positioning.

• Markets stayed resilient in September as rate cuts and AI optimism supported risk assets; EM equities and gold outperformed, while credit spreads stayed tight.

• Robeco argues the U.S. is operating as a “high-pressure economy”—robust demand with limited slack, amplified by tax cuts and tariffs, which prevent disinflation and risk overheating.

• Portfolio stance remains overweight equities and gold, underweight credit, with rising caution on bonds and a focus on managing volatility in a policy-driven environment.

How long can markets run on stimulus and momentum before macro imbalances surface? The full report explores allocation strategies and risk signals.