Balancing Acts and Breaking Points

NatWest’s June 30, 2025 commentary assesses global macroeconomic tensions, highlighting contrasts between resilient domestic demand, shifting inflation dynamics, and policy uncertainty across key regions.

• UK services-led recovery continues amid cooling price pressures, but manufacturing remains weak and employment declines persist.

• The US economy shows signs of deceleration, with softer services activity and rising inflation driven by tariffs, likely stalling Fed rate cuts.

• Eurozone momentum strengthens modestly, supported by improving manufacturing and falling input costs, giving the ECB more policy flexibility.

For a closer look at how policymakers are juggling growth, inflation, and geopolitical fragility, delve into the full report.