Cycle Turns, Signals Blur: Fixed Income at a Crossroads

This outlook distills how competing forces—surging AI capex, weakening U.S. labour data, and the first Fed rate cut of the cycle—shape fixed-income positioning into year-end 

• The labour market is flashing recession risk: payroll revisions of –911k and sub-30k monthly job gains raise the odds that slowing hiring becomes the dominant macro signal (page 2) 

• Rate cuts are now underway, yet inflation’s persistence and political pressure on the Fed cloud the path forward, driving volatility across credit curves and favouring flexibility over benchmarks (pages 4–5) 

• High carry remains the anchor: EM debt benefits from strong fundamentals, while global high yield continues to deliver coupon-like returns amid tight supply and improving sentiment (pages 8–11) 

To explore how these inflection points shape opportunities across credit, duration, and global markets, delve into the full report.